Smartphone sales have seen a resurgence this year, but not the iPhone

After two years of declining sales, forecasts for this year are slightly more optimistic. The International Data Corporation (IDC) clearly shows in its forecasts that this predicted growth does not apply to Apple, which is expected to record only minor "year-over-year" increases this year.

IDC has been tracking smartphone sales since the beginning and predicts a 6.2% growth in sales for 2024, which means 1.24 billion phones in number of devices. Unlike the overall market, Apple is expected to record only 0.4 % higher iPhone sales this year compared to last year.

Interestingly, despite the worse numbers, Apple remains in first place in terms of profit from sales. The average selling price of an iPhone is just over 1,000 euros, while the average price of Android phones is just under 280 euros.

If you might think that AI is somehow driving this growth, you'd be wrong. The two main attributes that IDC found to be responsible for the better numbers are the increase in sales of low-end phones in developing markets and the level of demand that remains as it was during the pandemic. It is true that artificial intelligence is a very important topic for companies such as Apple, Samsung and Google, but it still needs to convince customers.

For the next few years, as we can see in the graph above, IDC predicts minimal growth. Mainly due to the fact that we don't change devices as often and have them for a longer time, and due to the increasingly saturated market in developed countries. In addition, there is a robust secondary market for used devices on the rise, offering buyers affordable alternatives. In all likelihood, future growth will depend on countries or emerging markets and technological innovations such as foldable phones and 5G connectivity.

It will be interesting to see how sales of Apple's iPhones move now that Apple Intelligence is gradually being integrated into newer models. In June, Apple officially introduced Apple Intelligence for the first time, and is adding it to devices in phases. The first glimpses of Apple's artificial intelligence came with the release of iOS 18.1, and additional features should be available by the end of the year with the release of iOS 18.2. Of course, new versions will follow next year.

Apple Intelligence is currently limited to the 2023 iPhone 15 Pro and the entire iPhone 16 series, meaning the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max models. Apple hopes that by limiting the use of Apple Intelligence, they will encourage users of older models to buy newer ones.